More Gas, More Sand, Bigger Headaches Ahead

New forecasts link Montney gas growth to soaring sand demand through 2032, raising supply and logistics concerns

29 Nov 2025

Canada’s natural gas sector is bracing for a major shift, and it starts with sand. A new analysis of the Montney formation suggests that as Western Canadian gas expands to feed LNG exports, the country’s frac sand demand could surge far faster than most forecasts predict.

Published in late 2025, the report proposes a new way to forecast proppant use by linking sand requirements directly to gas output rather than drilling metrics such as rig counts or lateral length. Using Montney data from 2010 to 2024, researchers found that the amount of proppant needed per billion cubic feet of new gas has soared nearly fivefold over that period.

That finding lands just as Canada’s LNG ambitions move from theory to reality. LNG Canada shipped its first cargo from Kitimat on June 30, 2025, and by November both liquefaction trains were operating, signaling the start of full scale exports.

Growth, however, comes with challenges. The Montney’s natural production declines, estimated around 28%, mean companies must first replace lost output before adding new supply. The study’s expected case scenario projects that total Montney proppant use could nearly triple between 2025 and 2032, topping 17.7 million tonnes annually. Across the broader Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, total proppant demand could exceed 25 million tonnes by the early 2030s if other plays keep pace.

For Canada’s frac sand suppliers, that forecast is both a warning and an opportunity. If demand rises on schedule, sand sourcing, terminal access, and last-mile logistics could become as strategically important as drilling technology itself. The message is clear. In the race to supply LNG, getting the sand right may prove just as critical as getting the gas.